Friday, February 02, 2007

The KAR Super Bowl Betting Guide

Banaiaiaiaian, I'm sure, has turned down the volume on his Depeche Mode besotted iPod, and is now paying attention.

The line is Colts by 7. Fortunately, the 2 most accurate indicators for who will win seem to be in harmony.

First, the Nihilist in Golf Pants thinks that the Colts will win, but won't cover:

I'm calling the Colts in a close game. Something along the lines of 24-19.

And, as is his generous nature, he elaborates:

If it helps, I'm uncertain on whether the Colts will cover, but I definitely think they will win.

Under the vaunted Nihilist Anti-lock Betting System (NALBS) this would indicate to the enlightened bettor that he should immediately liquidate all his assets and take the Colts to cover. However, it would be perfectly understandable for a bettor to interpret this to mean the Bears would win outright.

To help make our task easier, the other bellweather, KFAN sportstalker and Viking's play by play guy Paul Allen, is extremely confident that the Bears will win. If you have any experience listening to Allen call games, you will know that this means that the Bears will lose. Even with having the advantage to see myriad replays from virtually any angle, whenever there's a coach's challenge to a call or a booth review, the official's eventual ruling is inevitably the opposite of how Allen predicted it. And he's making those predictions based on plays he's already seen - in most cases, several times. You think he can predict the outcome of a football game a week before the coin has been tossed?

I think not.

So to recap:

* Nihilist says Colts win, but do not cover.

* Paul Allen says Bears win outright.

I think that everybody knows where the smart money should go: Colts to cover.

POST SCRIPT: For those wagering on Brett Favre's career longevity:

Bet the over.

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