Thursday, January 17, 2008

The NALBS Becomes Self-Aware

The Nihilist has graced us with his picks for the Conference Championship games:

Green Bay -7 over NY Giants. There is no way the Packers can possibly fail to cover the spread, much less lose this game. They have the weather, the fans and they have Brett Favre. Let me repeat, the Packers cannot possibly fail to cover.

He later goes to great pains to emphasize his "pick":

Good luck and happy betting. Just to reiterate, my shoe in game of the season is the Packers -7.

The problem here is that the Nihilist is trying to be cute. Remember that the Nihilist Anti-Lock Betting System will payoff over 80% of the time if you follow 2 easy steps:

1) Ascertain the Nihilist's picks and

2) Bet the opposite.

As you can see, the Nihilist here thinks that if he picks the Packers to win, they'll actually lose (or at least, in this case, not cover). This is a miscalculation on his part. Because, you see, the NALBS is not a jinx-based system. Rather, it relies on the Nihilist's incompetence rather than his luck. Therefore the bettor is cautioned to avoid this pick altogether or come up with a way to discover which team the Nihilist would actually bet on if he were to put a hundie on the game.

And since the Nihilist is a cheap bastard, I doubt he'd even bet a fiver on it. So, unless you are clairvoyant, I'd pitch this pick.


The good news is that he seems more sincere about his other pick:

New England -14 over San Diego New England is so close they can taste it. Fourteen points is a lot, but this is a team that can make once in a lifetime history. Their opponent is unfortunate enough to have their three best offensive weapons dinged up. While all might play, they all may be somewhat hampered. They don't have enough offensive firepower to hang with the Pats.


In other news, Chad - so obviously paralyzed with jealousy - outlames even himself by outsourcing his smack to some American expat living in Italy who used to be in a techno band. The expat explains his bona fides thus:

I like football as much as anyone. I love football. On days when I can't watch football, I play Maddens. (Okay, I often play Maddens on days when I watch football too.)

Yeah, I play Maddens too. On my Wiis. I also like to play Guitar Heros and Zeldas.

And techno sucks.

The Packer Derangement Syndrome is especially strong this year.

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