Tuesday, October 07, 2008


Overconfidence can be a killer. One has to be very careful running smack about one's favorite, say, professional baseball team. Because time and again we've seen a lot of people who don the home team's color's - red and blue, for example - running their mouths in all manner of derogatory ways until a lethal combination of bad luck, misplaced confidence and plain old incompetence drops the hammer and makes them look foolish.

Such as it is with sports betting, with the dangerous exception that there is real money on the line. One cannot get too over confident and start throwing around hundies without carefully calculating the odds and considering all possible outcomes. This was the sort of attitude I brought with me into the sports book over the weekend.

Now, my brother and I spent a lot of time at the craps table. In fact, by our second day in Vegas we were on a first name basis with much of the Monte Carlo craps crew (and here I'd like to give a shout out to Cindy, Bev, Michael and Quiet Jimbo on the stick - you all are consummate professionals). We missed much of the MLB and college football games whilst concentrating on whether to bet double or triple odds on a shooter who looked like he might have potential. Just like Pete Rose, I didn't bet on baseball, so I didn't watch much of that. I'll leave that analysis to others.

Anyhoo - like I said, I wasn't going to get too smug about the NALBS with real money riding on the line. I decided to take a more conservative approach, and merely bet one parlay. The casino decided to force me to pull in further, by taking 3 games off the parlay cards: Cowboys / Bengals, Packers / Falcons / and Steelers / Jags. I had already voluntarily pulled the Vikes / Saints tilt off the board, as I wasn't going to be in town for the Monday night game, and I was reluctant to use the pay-by-mail service, should success warrant.

I also did not make any NALBS plays on lines that moved more than 1.5 points from the line the Nihilist used. I wanted the system to have as much integrity as possible. So, with a limited number of games, I applied the NALBS on the Nihilist's three most rancid picks (out of the 6 or seven possible games left) for a 3-leg parlay, $20. I took the Giants (-7.5), the Bears (-3.5), and the Panthers (-9.5).

Success! All three of those games turned out to be blowouts of epic proportions. I was calculating my payout for that bet by halftime. At 6 for 1, the bet returned me a healthy $120. I also made a separate non-NALBS $20 7-leg money card bet (just pick the winners - no spreads) that returned me $140. Another non-NALBS 6-way teaser for 20 fell just short with the Chargers' loss to the Fins.

I write this post not to brag, or run smack at lesser football bettors. But after first annihilating Flash in a season long football picking contest, devising the NALBS and then using that system and my own to bring home some good sized bling, I think I'm finally vindicated in my view that there is no better handicapper than me in the Minnesota blog-o-sphere.

After all, it's the results that really matter. I'll bet those totally hypothetical smug fans I mentioned in the first graf running their damn mouths all season long only to have their fortunes reverse in three games' a moment's time are pretty damn quiet now. Meanwhile, I'm still spending that money. No disgrace.

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